Why Do AdSense Earnings Vary?

One of the most popular frequent postings on AdSense forums seems to be something along the line of “My AdSense earnings have plummeted since yesterday. What has changed?” The AdMoolah forum got one of these postings the other day. I though my answer would make a worthy blog post.

AdSense earnings are never very predictable. They jump up and down all the time. Since the system has so many variables, it is almost impossible to tell what is effecting the earnings.

  • It could be the keyword your site is relates to was going through a bidding war that has stopped,
  • It could be that smart pricing has influenced things,
  • It could be Google re-crawled your site, decided it was about something else, so it changed the ads,
  • It could be your traffic has slowed down,
  • It could be that whatever was being advertised on your site was seasonal and no one is interested any more
  • It could be that a major advertiser ran out of budget for the month so prices plummeted.

I’m sure I missed some? What other reasons are there?

3 Comments

  1. Jon Henshaw Said,

    September 16, 2005 @ 7:33 am

    Although I still don’t completely understand how it works, it could be “smart pricing.”

    It could also be a reshuffling of your highest earning page(s) in the SERPs.

  2. Toivo Lainevool Said,

    September 16, 2005 @ 4:21 pm

    Yes, smart pricing is tricky to figure out. Google does not let us know much of what goes into the smart pricing algorithm and there is no way for a publisher to know which click convert or not.

    SERPs changing can be a killer that depend on the for traffic.

  3. AdMoolah News and Views » Google Responds to Smart Pricing Speculation Said,

    October 28, 2005 @ 3:32 pm

    [...] a publisher to know that they have been “hit” by smart pricing. See my post on Why Do AdSense Earnings Vary for more details. 2. Click-through rat [...]

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